The world this year pumped 1.1% more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the air than last year because of increased pollution from China and India, a team of scientists reported
Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are set to hit a record high this year, exacerbating climate change and fuelling more destructive extreme weather, scientists said.
The Global Carbon Budget report, published on Tuesday during the COP28 climate summit, said that overall CO2 emissions, which reached a record high last year, have plateaued in 2023 due to a slight drop from uses of land like deforestation.
“It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5 (degree Celsius, 2.7 degree Fahrenheit) target of the Paris Agreement, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2 (degree Celsius, 3.6 degree Fahrenheit) target alive,’’ study lead author Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter said.
Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is “just possible’’ but only barely and with massive emission cuts, said Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Chairman Jim Skea.
“We are clearly not going in the right direction,” Friedlingstein said.
This year, the burning of fossil fuel and manufacturing of cement have added the equivalent of putting 2.57 million pounds (1.17 million kilograms) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every second.
If China and India were excluded from the count, world carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacturing would have dropped, Friedlingstein told AP.
Outside of India and China, the rest of the world’s fossil fuel emissions went down by 419 million metric tons, led by Europe’s 205 million metric ton drop and a decrease of 154 million metric tons in the United States.
The world in 2023 increased its annual emissions by 398 million metric tons, but it was in three places: China, India and the skies. China’s fossil fuel emissions went up 458 million metric tons from last year, India’s went up 233 million metric tons and aviation emissions increased 145 million metric tons.
Europe’s 8% decrease was across the board with reduced emissions in coal, oil, gas and cement emissions, the report said. The U.S. decrease was almost entirely in coal, with slight increases in oil and gas emissions.
Last year the world’s carbon emissions increased but dropped in China, which was still affected by a second wave of pandemic restrictions. This year, China’s 4% jump in emissions is similar to the post-pandemic recovery other parts of the world had in 2022, Friedlingstein said.
The calculations are based on data from nations and companies for most of the year with the scientists projecting it through the end of this month.
Countries are expected to emit a total 36.8 billion metric tons of CO2 from fossil fuels in 2023, a 1.1% increase from last year, the report by scientists from more than 90 institutions including the University of Exeter concluded.
When land use emissions are included, global CO2 emissions are set to total 40.9 billion tons this year.
Emissions from coal, oil and gas all rose, driven by India and China. The Chinese rise was caused by its economy reopening after COVID-19 lockdowns, while India’s was a result of power demand growing faster than the country’s renewable energy capacity, leaving fossil fuels to make up the shortfall.
