Compelling estimates shed light on the rapid growth of sustainable aviation fuel production (SAF) and mark a crucial step towards a greener future for air travel, according to the IATA
Estimates by the International Air Transport Association conclude in 2024 SAF production is expected to triple to 1.875 billion litres (1.5Mt), accounting for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel need, and 6% of renewable fuel capacity, in a new analysis of SAF.
While the growth in 2023 and the projection for the coming year are encouraging, there is still a way to go for SAF to make a substantial impact, according the the IATA Director General.
In the year 2023, SAF volumes soared to an impressive 600 million litres (0.5Mt), doubling the 2022 production of 300 million liters (0.25 Mt).
Remarkably, SAF carved out a 3% share in the renewable fuels market, with the remaining 97% dedicated to other sectors.
However, the proportion of SAF output in relation to overall renewable fuel production is modest, mainly due to the allocation of new capacity to alternative renewable fuels.
“The doubling of SAF production in 2023 and the expected tripling in 2024 are encouraging signs. However, for SAF to truly make a substantial impact, we need it to constitute 25% to 30% of renewable fuel production capacity,” says Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. He says this allocation is crucial for putting aviation on the trajectory towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030. To reach this level, about 17.5 billion liters (14Mt) of SAF need to be produced.
“Governments want aviation to be net zero by 2050. Having set an interim target in the CAAF process they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production,” said Walsh.
- Demand is not the issue: Every drop of SAF produced has been bought and used. In fact, SAF added $756 million to a record high fuel bill in 2023. At least 43 airlines have already committed to use some 16.25 billion liters (13Mt ) of SAF in 2030, with more agreements being announced regularly.
- Unlocking supply to meet demand is the challenge that needs to be solved: Projections are for over 78 billion liters (63Mt) of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. Governments must set a policy framework that incentivizes renewable fuel producers to allocate 25-30% of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments.
Policy Objectives
Effective production incentives for SAF should support the following objectives, says the IATA:
- Accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies
- Ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities
- Focusing stakeholders on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production
- Identifying and prioritizing high potential production projects for investment support
- Delivering a global SAF Accounting Framework
Unlocking Diversification
Approximately 85% of SAF facilities coming on line over the next five years will use Hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking oil and industrial grease as feedstock. Limited quantities of these necessitate policies to:
- Diversify SAF production by increasing production through pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue.
- Promote investments in, and the fast-tracking of certification for, new SAF production pathways currently in the developmental phase.
- Identify more potential feedstocks to leverage all SAF technologies to provide diversification and regional options, including those with side-benefits such as environmental restoration.
Passenger Support
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF. Some 86% of travelers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
